Since Brexit and the election of Trump, there seems to be a general consensus in the mainstream media about western voter demographics. The narrative seems to be that older voters (say 50+), vote for the isolationist, protectionist option (that is, Brexit and Trump); while young people, having grown up in the era of social media, are more likely to vote for the socially and economically liberal option. American voters aged 18-24 preferred Clinton over Trump by 55% - 37%; 75% of British voters aged 18-24 voted to remain, with the proportion of voters who voted to exit the EU increasing with age.
So a general belief has emerged in Western voter demographics: older people = more conservative; and young people under the age of 30 = socially liberal.
So with the upcoming French election, I very much expected to see the aforementioned trends replicated in polls. The election has much of the same features that have been seen across recent elections in the Western world: an ideological clash between the populist protectionist vs. the social liberal, a disenchanted populace, poor economic conditions.
Not so!
A new poll on the French election shows that it is in fact younger voters who are throwing their support behind Marine Le Pen, the French presidential candidate of the anti-immigrant, anti - EU Front National (FN) party. And older voters are more likely to vote for pro business, pro - free trade Emmanuel Macron.
See the graph below. Thanks to Ben Judah for the pointer. Unfortunately I wasn't able to find the original source of the graph:
Form Trump & Brexit trends shown, one would expect that Le Pen polls particularly well with older voters. But support for Le Pen (the nationalist candidate) decreases very strongly as the voters get older, while her support remains comparatively high among younger age groups, peaking at 35% in the 18-24 yrs.
Meanwhile Macron polls (in my perspective) shockingly low amongst 18-24 group at 11%; ranging from 11-19% for those under 50 years. Adversely, his support has the opposite trend to Le Pen: it decreases as the groups get older, peaking at 28% in the 65+ group.
I find this fascinating - even though older voters tended to support Brexit and Trump, young French voters have completely rejected this pattern - so the question is, why is France not following the trend shown in other Western elections?
For the purpose of succinct analysis, I am only going to focus on Le Pen and Macron, the two candidates who:
1) are polled as the most likely candidates to make it to the final round
2) represent two vastly oppositional positions on most stances (pro EU vs. anti- EU; pro free trade vs anti free trade)
3) represent the seemingly 'ideal' candidates for two different groups: millennial (30 years and under) vs. baby boomers (50 years and older).
Why is there a difference? I have three hypotheses to this fascinating phenomena, listed from most to least relevant:
1. Young French voters have been disproportionately effected by France's economic downturn.
Political activism fundamentally stems from poor economic conditions. Voters who cannot see, or feel, a rise in living standards will turn towards unorthodox options, such as Le Pen. And in the case of young voters, their economic conditions, namely their inability to find a job, have necessitated political action.
Firstly, youth unemployment in France is 23.6%, and has averaged 20% from the late 1980's to now - overall unemployment is 10%. This means that generally, French youths have been the unfortunate bearers of France's economic stagnation. This inability to find a job can be attributed to a number of factors - overall stagnant growth is one of them - but fundamentally, it comes down to the inflexibility of the labour market. France's labour market has very generous conditions that greatly benefit those who are already employed - but unfortunately, those very benefits make it very difficult to hire people who are beginning to enter the market, such as young people.
This systemic rigidity is compounded somewhat by the 'job market culture' in some Western Europe labour markets, such as France and Italy, that incorporate socialist benefits. The culture is generally geared to older, more experienced workers vs. young, entrepreneurial yet untested workers.
Like fleas to a dog, France's labour market is partially responsible for unemployment and young people becoming inseparable from each other. While employment prospects of French youths become more doubtful, their counterparts in the U.S and the U.K experience better job prospects.
So young voters will begin to pivot to alternatives, such as Le Pen, when the political norm doesn't seem to be working.
Political activism fundamentally stems from poor economic conditions. Voters who cannot see, or feel, a rise in living standards will turn towards unorthodox options, such as Le Pen. And in the case of young voters, their economic conditions, namely their inability to find a job, have necessitated political action.
Firstly, youth unemployment in France is 23.6%, and has averaged 20% from the late 1980's to now - overall unemployment is 10%. This means that generally, French youths have been the unfortunate bearers of France's economic stagnation. This inability to find a job can be attributed to a number of factors - overall stagnant growth is one of them - but fundamentally, it comes down to the inflexibility of the labour market. France's labour market has very generous conditions that greatly benefit those who are already employed - but unfortunately, those very benefits make it very difficult to hire people who are beginning to enter the market, such as young people.
This systemic rigidity is compounded somewhat by the 'job market culture' in some Western Europe labour markets, such as France and Italy, that incorporate socialist benefits. The culture is generally geared to older, more experienced workers vs. young, entrepreneurial yet untested workers.
Like fleas to a dog, France's labour market is partially responsible for unemployment and young people becoming inseparable from each other. While employment prospects of French youths become more doubtful, their counterparts in the U.S and the U.K experience better job prospects.
So young voters will begin to pivot to alternatives, such as Le Pen, when the political norm doesn't seem to be working.
2. The memories of the 'dirtier' FN party linger among older voters; but are less familiar to millennials.
The FN was originally founded in the 1970's, but only achieved prominence during the 1980's to the early 2000's. During this time, it became known for a number of controversial issues - most famously, their reinstatement of the death penalty and their leader's denial of the Holocaust - leading to the party's slow decline in the 2000's. Marine Le Pen's modern leadership has since revamped the party, altering many of their previously xenophobic connotations. Perhaps older voters restrain from voting for the FN, due to their historic polarisation - but young voters, having grown up in the era of the transformed FN, do not maintain these connotations.
The FN was originally founded in the 1970's, but only achieved prominence during the 1980's to the early 2000's. During this time, it became known for a number of controversial issues - most famously, their reinstatement of the death penalty and their leader's denial of the Holocaust - leading to the party's slow decline in the 2000's. Marine Le Pen's modern leadership has since revamped the party, altering many of their previously xenophobic connotations. Perhaps older voters restrain from voting for the FN, due to their historic polarisation - but young voters, having grown up in the era of the transformed FN, do not maintain these connotations.
EDIT: And, just as I am writing and editing this post, Marine Le Pen has just announced that she is stepping down as head of the FN in order to "broaden her appeal."
3. The ramifications of a potential EU exit for older voters.
This theory is perhaps a little less plausible, but I've included it because I find this theory very interesting and unorthodox. One of the central messages of Le Pen's campaign has been the electoral pledge of a Frexit referendum. Exiting the EU - and subsequently abandoning the single currency would be more damaging to the elderly, who have higher savings rates and are more heavily exposed, than the young.
Of the three theories, ultimately I believe that 1) is the likely cause. In an era where it seems that political affiliations seem to be increasingly decided by age, it is important to remember that at the end of the day, people vote with their feet, not their social media feed.
3. The ramifications of a potential EU exit for older voters.
This theory is perhaps a little less plausible, but I've included it because I find this theory very interesting and unorthodox. One of the central messages of Le Pen's campaign has been the electoral pledge of a Frexit referendum. Exiting the EU - and subsequently abandoning the single currency would be more damaging to the elderly, who have higher savings rates and are more heavily exposed, than the young.
Of the three theories, ultimately I believe that 1) is the likely cause. In an era where it seems that political affiliations seem to be increasingly decided by age, it is important to remember that at the end of the day, people vote with their feet, not their social media feed.
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